Buying Tesla “Full Self Driving” for $12k Is Actually A No Brainer Freeroll Despite No Actual FSD

Despite being a “professional investor” who has followed Tesla since 2013 and owned a Model Y since 2021, I am not perfect. I make mistakes.

I know, what a shock.

After careful consideration I recently realized that I had made a big mistake regarding my Long Range Tesla Model Y. It was not until giving it extra thought (and Elon’s warning that the price would soon be $15k) that I realized buying the “Full Self Driving” software now for $12k is a must. The reason: there is little doubt that this software, some of the most advanced ever coded, will sell for $20k, $25k, $30k and more at some future time. Why would I not lock up a $12k option that is nearly guaranteed to appreciate?!

After thinking it through and reframing it from the perspective of a long-term investor rather than end and user of the software, I made the business decision to purchase full self driving for $12,000. I believe the software will eventually be very close to level four autonomy despite my belief that level five autonomy is at least a decade away. In any case, FSD will never be less valuable than today’s price of $12,000 with the next jump going to $15,000 in just a few days. Instant equity!

Speaking of equity, with FSD being permanently tied to the vehicle, not the user, it creates a floor where the Tesla resale value will will always be the value of a used Tesla plus the current present day value of full self driving software, which as noted could be $30k or more!

The more I thought about it the more I realized it would almost be irresponsible to not add full self driving at today’s prices when we already have a clear roadmap for future increases. It would be tantamount to buying a brand new Rolex from an authorized dealer for $9,000 that sells instantly on eBay for $22,000. Or here in Ohio where we have to get into a lottery to buy rare bourbon that they sell at a retail price of $60 or $70 and the bottle is instantly with $500 or more on the secondary market. I finally realized that it makes sense to spend $12,000 on something that’s going to be worth $12k + X in a couple of years where X will certainly be > $3k and likely much, much greater than $3k. 

In short, do I believe the Tesla Full Self Driving software is worth $12,000 today? Perhaps not. But it is getting close and it will certainly be worth it in the future. Seems like a no-brainer for all Tesla owners. Think it over and ACT FAST!